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Week of 10/30

A Speaker is Elected and Fear of a Regional Conflict Grows

Author

Will Nelson
October 30, 2023

Week of 10/30/23

Prepared by Will Nelson for Tom Donohue

Stories that drove last week

  • Election of a new and relatively unknown speaker

  • Israel begins a ground incursion into Gaza amid mounting fears of the conflict becoming regional

  • The economy continues to look concerning

Correction:

Last week Nikki Haley’s polling change since October 1 was written as +.03% rather than +0.3%

Domestic News

  1. Politics

    1. 2024 Race

      1. Republican Primary Polling

        1. Trump (56.9%) [+0.1% since last week)

        2. Desantis (14.1%) [+0.4% since last week)

        3. Haley (8%) [+.0.8% since last week]

        4. Ramaswamy (5.8%) [+0.2% since last week]

        5. Pence (Suspended Campaign)

        6. Christie (3.1%) [-0.1% since last week]

    2. Big Stories

      1. A speaker is elected

        1. Mike Johnson emerged as the consensus candidate and won the gavel with unanimous party support

        2. He sat with Sean Hannity for a wide reaching interview

      2. More American’s are approving of the use of violence against political opponents (Hat Tip: Rob Noel)

        1. Almost 25% of Americans agree that "patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country" (PRRI)

        2. 40% at least somewhat believe it is acceptable to use violence to thwart political opponents (UVA)

      3. DeSantis banned pro-Palestinian student groups from Florida Colleges

      4. Pence suspends campaign

      5. A third former Trump lawyer has entered a plea deal in Georgia

  1. Economics

    1. Markets

      1. Equities

        1. S&P 500 (-2.33% last week)

        2. NASDAQ (-2.91% last week)

        3. DJI (-1.58% last week)

      2. Interest Rates

        1. Fed Funds Rate: 5.5%

        2. Average mortgage: 8.463%

    2. Big Stories

      1. UAW and Stellantis agree to a deal, joining Ford and leaving GM as the final holdout

      2. Median home sale prices are dropping

      3. Consumer debt delinquencies are growing

        1. Auto loan delinquency highest since 2012

        2. CC’s delinquency growing (see below)

Global News

  1. Conflicts

    1. Israel

      1. Israel increases missile fire and commences ground operations

      2. Gaza casualties rise as “civil order” breaks down 

      3. Elon Musk offered Starlink Internet to “recognized” aid groups in Gaza, drawing scorn from Israel

        1. He later held a call with an Israeli official in which he reiterated his support for Israel and that the terminals would only be available to reputable aid organizations

    2. Ukraine

      1. In an interview with Sean Hannity new speaker Mike Johnson claimed that house Republicans will separate defense funding bills for for Ukraine and Israel.

        1. However, he reiterated support for Ukraine claiming “We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine because I don’t believe it would stop there”

  2. Russia

    1. Russian hosted Hamas leaders, Israeli foreign affairs minister has called for a meeting and argued that Russia is legitimizing terrorists

      1. Russia is “our closest friend” - Hamas

    2. A large mob stormed a Russian airport in search of Israeli Jews

      1. Russia has claimed this was an operation fomented by the Ukrainians

      2. 9 Russian security officers injured

      3. 150 participants have been identified and 60 have been located and arrested

  3. China

    1. Xi’s visit with Biden in SF will not be “smooth sailing” - Chinese Foreign Minister

  4. Other

    1. US running low on 155mm shells

      1. Having trouble scaling production

    2. US Strikes Syrian target sending message to Iran 

    3. Overnight:

      1. US conducted airstrikes aginst a convey “suspected of carrying weapons” on the Syria - Iraqi border.

    4. Qatar is being put to the test as an intermediary 

Reading List

Anything we missed, any thoughts or responses? We look forward to hearing from you!